Psychohistory

Prompt:

Round table discussion on Asimov's psychohistory (defects, gap between fiction and reality).

Participants: Peter Turchin, Neal Stephenson and Tyler Cowen.

Moderator: Dwarkesh Patel

Lengthy contributions (with occasional brief interjections). Each participant's responses should be stylistically modelled on their published work.

The conversation should drift and evolve organically. Speakers should mostly respond to the moderator's questions and/or react to comments made by other participants.

Assume the audience is intelligent and well-informed. (They've done the required reading.)

Response: GPT-5 Thinking