Decolonisation IV (Counterfactuals)

Deep Research prompt:

Post 1945, how could the European colonial powers, working within the economic and political constraints they faced at the time, have prepared better for the independence of their colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa? Explore this question carefully and in detail. Approach this as a complex problem of socio-political engineering with the objective being to produce independent, politically stable and economically viable states within a reasonable time frame. This should be an exercise in counterfactual history. Take into account the Cold War, independence movements, financial and logistical constraints - place these actors on the same stage but explore how they could have played their roles differently. Do not feel bound by the independence timetables from actual history (this is crucial) but acknowledge and account for the internal and external pressures that led to them. You will necessarily have to produce, for a handful of states (8-10), estimates of earliest feasible independence dates, given the constraints and outlined objectives. Beware of anchoring effects.

Focus on Britain, France, Belgium and Portugal.

Begin with Sub-Saharan colonies as they stood in 1945. If amalgamation or division of territories (or other border alterations) may have created more stable states, definitely explore this possibility.

Embed qualitative estimates in the analysis.

Incorporate hypothetical institutional innovations. The counterfactual should effectively be: what if the European decision-makers responsible for colonial policy (the architects and administrators of decolonisation) were all, circa 1945, replaced by astute, highly intelligent, out-of-the-box thinkers who, while lacking precognitive foresight or knowledge of the specifics of their own future timeline, had imbibed the insights we (in 2025) have gained from our analysis of historical decolonisation.

Resulting reports: ChatGPT and Gemini

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The first audio file was generated using the reports above as source texts.

The second was based on a conversation I had earlier today with ChatGPT to (1) address some issues the earlier podcast failed to explore in depth and (2) nudge the LLM towards my preferred decolonisation timetables.

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Critical assessments of both Deep Research reports by OpenAI’s o3 model: Gemini and ChatGPT